Statistics let us remove emotional stimuli and focus on the hard truth of what happens. But we need to place statistics into their environment to gain context and understand what’s really happening. Bryce Petty having 60% accuracy doesn’t tell you any information, but 60% accuracy throwing against man coverage gives you something to work with. That’s the purpose of this season-long project.
Let’s get this out of the way, these numbers aren’t completely objective. There’s a lot of subjectivity involved with interceptables, drops, single vs full reads, and even what the coverage faced is. This is still a subjective analysis. It’s just adding numbers to that subjective analysis.
The Ryan Fitzpatrick era is over. I could go through the last game but there’s no information left to gather from Fitzpatrick’s Arizona matchup that hasn’t already been mentioned in previous games. He’s limited, doesn’t offer upside with the skills he has, and misses reads. He also somehow had a worse pocket presence than he did in 2015.
I’m not surprised that he crashed this year, but I am surprised with just how terrible the crash was. Searching for an answer to why, i remembered an article from Gang Green Nation wherein they stated this:
One thing that jumps out is how Fitzpatrick’s luck in facing top pass defenses has been the polar opposite of Geno Smith’s. In 82 games since 2010, Fitzpatrick has faced only 22 top pass defenses. That amounts to 27% of the games Fitzpatrick has played, a rate less than half of Geno’s 58% games against top pass defenses. In the last three years the numbers have been even more extreme, with Fitzpatrick facing top pass defenses in only 7 of the 38 games Fitzpatrick has played (excluding the 2015 Oakland game). That amounts to only 18% of Fitzpatrick’s games since 2013, a rate less than a third of Geno’s 58%. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this has been the best stretch of Fitzpatrick’s career, by a fairly significant margin.
Maybe that’s our answer. Having to face four out of five top defenses on the road in a six week period could be a catalyst for meltdown. Either way, it’s the end of Fitzpatrick’s hopes as the Jets starter.
There’s nothing left to look at this game. Instead we’ll close the context stats on Fitzpatrick for the year by looking back at 2016. At least i hope this is it’s closing. I don’t want to have to open this book again.
The entire range of 10-19 yards was abominable for Fitzpatrick. He was careless throwing into the range and only had one spot show a positive return on yardage. You’ll see that the YPA in every block except the Middle is less than the distance that the ball was thrown. Even in that middle block, he only averaged 10.8; just above the absolute low end for passable. His only capable areas were the short range between the numbers, behind the line of scrimmage, and surprisingly two spots in the 20-29 area. You don’t need me to go through the reasons, you know what the reasons are at this point.