Context Stats: Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick vs The Ravens

Statistics let us remove emotional stimuli and focus on the hard truth of what happens. But we need to place statistics into their environment to gain context and understand what’s really happening. Geno Smith having 60% accuracy doesn’t tell you any information, but 60% accuracy throwing against man coverage gives you something to work with. That’s the purpose of this season-long project.

Let’s get this out of the way, these numbers aren’t completely objective. There’s a lot of subjectivity involved with interceptables, drops, single vs full reads, and even what the coverage faced is. This is still a subjective analysis. It’s just adding numbers to that subjective analysis.

I’ve been adamant for a long time that Geno Smith is a better quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick. After running context stats between them for their last full seasons (Geno Smith’s 2014 and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 2015), I became certain that this was the truth. Unfortunately, an injury took away the chance to solidify that. However, that doesn’t change this: Geno Smith outplayed Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday.

Geno Smith Context Stats 2016 - Reads
Geno Smith’s stats on the day. Sacks and runs count in all applicable section. Runs count as a completion and an attempt, sacks only as an attempt. Any yards from runs and sacks are added into the total yards and represented in ANY/A.

Geno Smith showed that he didn’t spend all his time on the bench doing nothing. In fact, Geno Smith had the best mental play of any Jets QB so far in 2016.

This is a yankee concept and in simplified terms that’s a vertical stretch on the safety. The play-design forces the safety to make a decision between covering the deep post route or deep in as they cross his face.

At the pre-snap, Geno sees both corners playing off and in a zone stance while the safeties are hinting cover-2. After the snap, the safeties rotate with the bottom safety going single high as this turns into a cover-3. When Geno sees that safety roll away from the post into the middle of the field, he turns towards it. That turn baits the safety into chasing down the post. Geno then switches to Marshall, takes a read step and fits the ball past a linebacker in the middle of the field. Marshall drops it, but you can see how Geno’s eyes cleared a massive space for Marshall to run through.




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